Results Overview

How to Read These Results

The Results page summarises saved road-analysis cases from the Road Risk model. These records show road geometry, scenario settings, derived physics values, comparative outputs, and confidence information.

Result boundary

These are saved records from the model. They show how selected roads behaved under the chosen assumptions. They are not official safety ratings or crash predictions.

Results Dashboard

Saved Model-Output Cases

This dashboard combines reviewed public cases loaded from the committed site dataset with local cases saved explicitly in this browser. Local browser cases are stored only on this device/browser. They will not appear on another phone, computer, or browser unless exported, reviewed, and committed to the public dataset.

Case filters
Scenario filters
Evidence quality
Output filters
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Dataset Graphs and Comparative Patterns

Charts update with the active filters and describe saved model-output cases only. They support interpretation of the saved dataset; they do not establish observed collision risk.

Results Insights

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Future Evidence Slots Fields Needed for Future Reviewed Cases

These cards define the exact fields a documented result should contain. They are shown only as guidance when no cases are loaded. Real public cases must come from exported app JSON that has been reviewed and committed to the site dataset.

Awaiting Reviewed Export

Selected Road Segment Case

Scenario
Pending export
Location
Pending export
Annualised Comparative Model Output
Pending export
Safe Speed
Pending export
Stopping Distance
Pending export
Confidence
Pending export

No measured case data has been committed yet. This slot is ready for a CSV/JSON/GeoJSON-backed selected-road example.

Awaiting Reviewed Export

Scenario Sensitivity Case

Baseline
Pending export
Changed Factor
Pending export
Output Shift
Pending export
Interpretation
Pending export

This slot should compare the same road under two defined assumption sets, such as dry baseline versus rain, fog, or fatigue.

Awaiting Reviewed Export

Route-Level Case

Route
Pending export
Mean Output
Pending export
Highest Segment
Pending export
Samples
Pending export

This slot should include route distance, duration, average output, highest segment, hotspot count, and supporting route export data.

Core Output Variables

Values Used in Result Interpretation

Variable Category Interpretation Role Boundary
Heading change, radius, and curvature Derived geometry Describe how sharply the selected road changes direction. Sparse or noisy public geometry can reduce precision.
Safe speed Physics-informed output Shows a friction-limited curve-speed check under the active assumptions. Not a posted speed limit or legal recommendation.
Stopping distance Physics-informed output Connects speed, reaction time, friction, and scenario settings. Simplifies gradients, tyres, ABS, surface wear, and visibility obstructions.
Annualised Comparative Model Output and Daily Interpretive View Comparative model output Provide a consistent reporting basis for comparing roads and scenarios. Not observed crash rates.
Percentile position and tail markers Comparative statistics Place one road inside a sampled network distribution. Only meaningful within the sampled comparison set.
Booklet-Aligned Findings

Observed Patterns Across Repeated Testing

  • Roads with greater curvature consistently produced higher comparative model outputs than straighter segments under the same assumptions.
  • Tighter curves resulted in lower safe-speed estimates and increased turning demand.
  • Adverse conditions, including wet surfaces, reduced visibility, and fatigued-driver assumptions, increased stopping-distance demand and model output.
  • Some roads remained relatively stable across scenarios, while others were more sensitive to changes in weather, visibility, and reaction-time assumptions.
  • Combined adverse scenarios produced the highest outputs across the tested patterns described in the booklet.
  • Comparative statistical positioning improved interpretation by distinguishing typical values from upper-tail outputs within the sampled network.
Scenario Sensitivity

How Assumptions Affect the Same Road

Scenario Factor Expected Model Direction Primary Mechanism What Not to Conclude
Rain / wet surface Usually higher output Lower effective friction, reduced safe-speed margin, longer stopping distance. It does not prove a specific wet-road crash risk.
Fog / reduced visibility Higher interpretive concern Visibility and reaction context become more restrictive. It does not measure actual visibility at the site.
Fatigue / distraction / BAC Usually higher output Longer reaction component and higher behavioural multiplier. It does not observe any real driver.
Overspeed Higher output, often non-linear Higher lateral acceleration and velocity-squared stopping-distance demand. It is a scenario test, not evidence of actual speeding.
Vehicle type Changes stopping and handling interpretation Vehicle profile assumptions affect braking, mass/context, and visibility interpretation. It is not a full vehicle-dynamics simulation.
Route-Level Interpretation

Route Means Should Not Hide Local Peaks

Route Mean Output

The route mean provides a compact summary of sampled model output along a route. It is useful for comparison, but it can obscure a single demanding bend or junction context.

Highest Segment Output

The highest sampled route segment is often more useful for review because it identifies where local geometry or scenario demand is concentrated.

Result Limitations

What the Results Do Not Establish

No collision-history calibration claim

The current results are not calibrated against complete national collision-history datasets.

No official road-safety rating

A high output may indicate a segment worth closer review, but it does not certify that the road is dangerous.

No proof of safety from low output

A low output does not prove a road is safe; it only means the selected model context produced a lower comparative value.

Public-data boundary

Missing OSM tags do not prove missing infrastructure. Field verification would be required for operational claims.

Documented Cases

Export Cases from the Live Application

Use the live app's case-evidence export to create reviewed JSON records for the static public dataset.